A Normal Winter?

The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) released its analysis of the past winter today and the assessment for South Carolina? Near normal. The statewide average turned out to be the 66^th coldest and 65^th wettest winter on record.  The ranking was based on 120 years of data.

The statewide rank of temperatures (top) and precipitation (bottom) based on 120 years of records (since 1895).  A rank of 1 for temperature would be the coldest while for precipitation it would be the driest.  Click on the image for a larger view. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Coming in the Back Door

This winter has been a wild one for temperatures in South Carolina.  There have been big swings from hot to cold and back again.  Now that meteorological spring has begun (March 1^st) the pattern continues.

A dramatic change to our weather is about to take place.  Cold arctic air is already in place across much of the central U.S.  Normally a cold front moving in from the west would bring the cold air to our state.  However, occasionally it comes in through the “back door”.

High pressure builds east and the cold air slides down the eastern seaboard faster than it can come in from the west.  It becomes trapped between the ocean to the east and the Appalachians to the west.  The cold front that surges south is known as a “back door” cold front.

Typically a wedge of cold air stays in place until something comes along to move the cold air out, which is a very difficult thing to do.  The result can be days of overcast skies and chilly northeast winds.

This time the back door cold front will be accompanied by a dramatic temperature drop.  When the front passes the temperatures will likely drop 20-25° F in an hour or two.  The front will be preceded by a band of rain which will begin the temperature drop.  Winds will shift from a westerly direction to a northerly direction as the front passes.  The winds will increase and there will be a wind chill to worry about in the late afternoon.

The RPM model forecast for 1:30 p.m. EST on Monday, March 3, 2014.  This is from the 21z run of the model using the 12 km grid.  Click on the image for a larger version.  Image Credit: WLTX-TV\WSI.