Ernesto
became the second hurricane this season yesterday afternoon. Moving west-northwest the storm made landfall
on the Yucatan Peninsula east of Chetumal, Mexico. The official landfall was about 11 p.m. and maximum sustained winds were estimated at
about 85 mph in squalls northeast of the center. Minimum pressure was 980 mb (28.94 in.).
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| The top picture is an enhanced infrared satellite photo. Image Credit: NESDIS. The bottom picture is of Ernesto making landfall from the Doppler Radar in Belize City. The hurricane is into the top portion of the screen. Image Credit: Belize National Meteorological Service. Click on either picture for a larger view. |
The
hurricane was far enough south that the tourist areas of Cancun and Cozumel
only saw tropical storm force winds at best.
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| Both maps are of the wind field around Ernesto at 00z August 8, 2012. The winds are in knots and the bottom map is a closeup of the top map. Image Credit: NESDIS. |
The
system will continue moving across the Yucatan Peninsula overnight and
weakening. It is expected to emerge into
the Bay of Campeche early Wednesday afternoon as a tropical storm. It could regain minimal hurricane strength
before making landfall a second time near Veracruz, Mexico.
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| The forecast for Ernesto after landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. This was made at 11 p.m. EDT, August 7, 2012. Image Credit: NOAA/NHC. |
Heavy
rains and high winds will be the main impact of this storm. There will be some storm surge near the
landfall points of the hurricane, but it should not be much of a storm
surge. Much of the flooding will likely
be from heavy rains.
Elsewhere
in the Atlantic
There
is some interest in the area of disturbed weather now southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands. This could become a
tropical storm later this week while it heads for the Leeward Islands. The global models hint that the system could
diminish once it crosses the Atlantic. This
will be watched.
However,
the global models are suggesting that a system coming off the African coast on
Friday may become a more vigorous system next week. Both the ECMWF and GFS (two global models)
are now forecasting this. The forecast
below is a 7.5 day forecast and the skill level is not that good, yet.
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| The GFS 180 hr. forecast made at 00z August 8, 2012 and valid for 12z Wednesday, August 15. The dark lines are mean sea level pressure while the shading is the 1000-500 mb thickness. Image Credit: WSI. |
The
weather pattern suggests that if this scenario plays out, then there is a
chance that it will approach the East coast late next week.
