Spring 2013: DELAYED

It’s spring!

The vernal equinox on March 20, 2013.  It is that time of year again (it happens twice) when the relative angle of Earth is perpendicular to the Sun, causing equal incoming solar energy to the Northern and Southern hemispheres - as well as equal day and nighttime. At 7:02 ET on March 20, 2013, Earth was at its equinox. At 7:45 ET, the GOES-13 satellite captured this full disk image of Earth.  Click on the image for a larger view.  Image Credit: NOAA.

Both meteorological and astronomical springs have arrived.  The vernal equinox marks the beginning of spring in the Northern Hemisphere.  This is when the vertical rays of the sun are directly over the earth’s equator and crosses the equator on its northward journey.

Funny, it doesn’t feel like spring.  Let me check the forecast:

The 5-day forecast for March 20, 2013 for Columbia, SC.  Image Credit: WLTX-TV.

Remember those groundhog forecasts from six weeks ago.  A couple of them got it right, but most got is wrong.  Not only did spring not come early, it does not appear to be in sight.

Energy And Climate

The 2013 annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society took place this past January in Austin, Texas.  One of the topics was that of energy and climate.  Billionaire T. Boone Pickens spoke on Sunday evening before the annual meeting began.  It was an enjoyable evening and interesting to hear was he had to say.

T. Boone Pickens

First, he holds a degree in geology from Oklahoma State University.  Pickens said “I’m one of the few (petroleum) geologists that agree that global warming is happening.”  He agrees that we need to do something to mitigate the effects of the warming.  It is smarter to do something to avoid the problem rather than waiting until it happens to do anything.

However, he went on to say that hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) would be with us for the next 50 years.  Pickens said that wind and solar represent just 2% of the energy generation and he didn’t think that it would become substantial until it became economically more competitive with fossil fuels.  That means a price of about $6 for natural gas (it is just under $4 today).

Pickens is against the idea of a carbon tax or cap & trade.  However, he did not say whether he agreed with the idea of ending fossil fuel subsidies.  Tom Friedman of the New York Times has an interesting article on attacking carbon emissions and the fiscal debt.

Comet PANSTARRS

Comets bright enough to be seen without the aid of a telescope or binoculars are a rarity.  This year may produce two such events.  The first is now visible in the western sky after sunset, weather permitting.  Comet PANSTARRS is actually Comet 2011 L4.  Discovered in June 2011, comet 2011 L4 (PANSTARRS) bears the name of the telescopic survey that discovered it; "Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System" which sits atop the Haleakala volcano in Hawaii.

The comet moved into the view of the Northern Hemisphere last week, but the best views should be over the next two weeks.  You can follow continuing updates on the progress of the comet at Sky and Telescope.  Viewing the comet may still be a challenge.

Comet C/2011 L4 PANSTARRS as seen from Mount Dale, Western Australia. The lights on the distant horizon are from the city of Armadale, which is southeast of Perth. Click on the image for a larger view. Image credit: Astronomy Education Services/Gingin Observatory.

Southeast Drought Improves

What a difference a month can make.  The drought situation was becoming serious at the end of January as I wrote here.  Yet, February saw an abundance of rainfall creating a substantial surplus for the month.

Monthly rainfall for February in Columbia, SC.  Image Credit: WLTX-TV.

Monthly observed rainfall for February, 2013, covering South Carolina as well as parts of Georgia and North Carolina.  Click on the image for a larger view.  Image Credit: NOAA/AHPS.

In South Carolina the heaviest rainfall occurred over the southern half of the state.  Some parts of the low country saw over ten inches of rain for the month.  The least rainfall occurred over the north central section where rainfall was in the three to four inch range.  However, this area saw more rain in January so that the two-month total is substantial.

A series of storm systems moved through the Southeast pumping moisture from the Gulf of Mexico northward.  The heaviest rainfall occurred across southern Alabama, southern Georgia, and parts of northern Florida.  The drought was center in central Georgia which had experienced extreme to exceptional drought conditions for over a year and a half.

A Change In The March 2013 Outlook

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues outlooks for the next month in the middle of the current month.  They will often issue an updated outlook near the last day of the current month.  Usually these projections do not vary much, but this month saw a substantial revision.

Computer models designed to forecast daily weather are run out to 15 days, four times each day.  Most are familiar with the 7-day forecast.  The CPC also issues 8-14 day outlooks for the second week of the forecast in additions to the monthly and seasonal outlooks that they make each month.

Beginning with the 8-14 day temperature outlook on February 21 and the one issued on February 28, it seems that the first half of March would be colder than normal for South Carolina as seen in the outlooks below.

The 8-14 day temperature outlooks.  The first one made February 21 and the second one (right) made February 28.  Click on the image for a larger view.  Image Credit: NOAA/CPC.

The reason for this projection is that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has been in a negative phase with the forecast for it to become strongly negative next week.  This usually produces a cold outbreak for parts of the U.S.  Last year the AO was strongly positive and the U.S. saw the warmest March on record.

Bad Place For Science

Two recent editorials in Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) are examples of why you don’t want to get your science from the editorial page.  The paper touts its views as conservative, but these examples are either meant to mislead or are out of ignorance.  They deserve to be put to rest once and for all.  You can read them here and here.

The first editorial attacks the notion that there is no consensus on climate change.  It uses a study published in November and can be read here.  The first red flag in the editorial is that they never mention where the study is published.  However, it did not take long for me to track down the paper.

It seems that the editorial originated with James Taylor, managing editor of The Heartland Institute’s Environment and Climate News, with a post he wrote on the Forbes website.  The original post on Forbes and thus the editorial in IBD have been thoroughly debunked here, here, and here.

Brian Angliss of Scholars and Rogues writes:

“The reality is that, contrary to claims made by Taylor and others at Heartland, every serious attempt to measure the degree of consensus among scientists and climate experts has concluded that the overwhelming majority of experts agree that climate is changing rapidly, that humans are the dominant drivers of the changes, and that model projections indicate that the changes will be highly disruptive if they’re not planned for. And every attempt to disprove the reported consensus has been disproved or shown to be based on distortions. Just like this attempt by Taylor has been.”

Snow For The Midlands

UPDATE: 1 p.m. Saturday

The precipitation that moved through the Midlands this morning was mixed with snow with more snow in the northern sections.  Daniel Bonds reported from Winnsboro that the snow fell of over an hour with only trace accumulations thanks to a warm ground.  The RPM verified reasonably well on this event.

Radar is showing a break in the precipitation for the early afternoon.  However, another band of precipitation is expected between 4 and 9 p.m. for the northern half of the Midlands. This will likely be in the form of wet snow and there could be some accumulation.  The pictures below are from the 12z run of the Regional Precision Model (RPM).  The 15z run is similar, but backs off on coverage.  It still has the same idea.

From the 12Z RPM.  Image Credit: WLTX.

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Computer models began suggesting that a fast-moving weather system in the middle part of the atmosphere could bring snow to the midlands of South Carolina this weekend.  The models backed off from that forecast during much of the week, but still hinted at something.  Well, something is here.  Snow became a real possibility once the high-resolution models came into play in the short-range.

A vigorous trough with the energy moving through the Southeast valid for 18z Saturday, February 16.  The forecast uses the NAM model based on the 00z data for Saturday, February 16.  Click on the image for a larger version.  Image Credit: WSI.

A vigorous upper-level disturbance will be passing over the Midlands late Saturday.  There will be enough moisture as the cold air moves in to produce snow for the area.  The situation will be dynamic and constantly changing during the day.  Rain will begin to fall in the Piedmont before daybreak.  The air will be chilled by evaporative cooling and the rain will change to snow.

Remembering The 1973 Snowstorm In South Carolina

February 9-10, 2013 marked the 40^th anniversary of the greatest snowstorm to hit South Carolina in modern times.  Snow in the South is rare enough, but this set many records across the states of Georgia and South Carolina.  Here are some of the notable snowfalls from the storm:

                        Rimini, SC                              24 inches

   Macon, GA                            19 inches

                        Branchville, SC                      19 inches

                        Lake City, SC                         17.5 inches

                        Blackville, SC                         17 inches

                        Columbia, SC                         16 inches

                        Aiken, SC                               15 inches

                        Summerville, SC                    15 inches

                        Springfield, SC                       15 inches

                        Kingstree, SC                         13 inches

                        Camden                                 12 inches

These are just a few of the totals from this remarkable storm.  Generally the snowfall was between 10 to 20 inches over much of central Georgia and central and southern South Carolina.  Winds will strong enough to produce drifts to 5 feet in Sumter and Clarendon counties.

Many refer to this storm as a blizzard and to many in the South it seemed like one.  However, I could not find evidence that it met the criteria for one.  No doubt it was a significant snowstorm which would rival storms much farther north.

Timing is everything for snowstorms in the Deep South.  Typically when it gets cold enough to produce snow the air is too dry.  The right mix of cold air, moisture, and intensifying storm are rare.  Thus, forecasting such storms is quite challenging.

The challenge was much greater back in 1973.  Knowledge about the dynamics of such storms and the modern technology to forecast them was not as advanced as today.  Geostationary satellites were not in standard use or available to local forecasters.   It would not be until the 1980s that much of the dynamics would be known and satellites would be commonplace for forecasters.  The forecast of the New England blizzard this past weekend, days ahead, would have been impossible back then.

The Southeast Drought Continues

Droughts can be insidious.  Just when you think they’re gone, they’re back.  Actually it never went away in the Southeast, it just moved around.  The center of the drought began in northeast Florida in 2011 and moved to southern Georgia a year later.  Now the center of the drought is central Georgia and it is beginning to expand thanks to a dry January.

The Drought Monitor for the end of January 2011-13.  Click on the image for a larger view.  Image Credit: USDA.

The current drought began in the Southeast with the end of El Nino in 2010.  That was followed by two years of La Nina which brought drier than normal conditions particularly in the winter and spring.  The worst of the drought has been centered in central Georgia where extreme to exceptional drought conditions have persisted for two years.

However, drought conditions for southeast Georgia and northeast Florida actually disappeared this past summer thanks to two tropical weather systems (Beryl & Debby) which inundated the region with rain in late May and June.  Drought is creeping back into those areas.

Groundhog Predictions

This past Saturday (February 2) was Groundhog Day, a day of anticipation by many tired of winter.  Each year people wait to see what the groundhog has to say about the coming spring.  The most famous groundhog is Punxsutawney Phil in Pennsylvania and has the longest running record.  Predictions from 1888 to 1900 were intermittent and became regular after that time.

Punxsutawney Phil comes out of his hole each Groundhog Day, like clockwork, to tell us if we can expect an early spring or another six weeks of winter. If Phil sees his shadow, he’ll go back underground to wait out the next chilly month and half. If there’s no shadow, Phil — and the rest of us — know that spring is right around the corner.

Average temperature for Columbia, SC, from February 2 - March 16.  Image Credit: Climate Central.

The six-week period that starts on February 2nd has been getting gradually warmer in Columbia since 1887. The warming hasn’t been uniform: you can see from the graph above that some years are cooler than average and some are warmer, but the overall trend is slowly upward. This is consistent with the rising global temperatures that climatologists have predicted with increasing certainty for decades.