This
past Saturday (February 2) was Groundhog Day, a day of anticipation by many
tired of winter. Each year people wait
to see what the groundhog has to say about the coming spring. The most famous groundhog is Punxsutawney
Phil in Pennsylvania and has the longest running record. Predictions from 1888 to 1900 were
intermittent and became regular after that time.
Punxsutawney
Phil comes out of his hole each Groundhog Day, like clockwork, to tell us if we
can expect an early spring or another six weeks of winter. If Phil sees his
shadow, he’ll go back underground to wait out the next chilly month and half.
If there’s no shadow, Phil — and the rest of us — know that spring is right
around the corner.
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| Average temperature for Columbia, SC, from February 2 - March 16. Image Credit: Climate Central. |
The
six-week period that starts on February 2nd has been getting gradually warmer
in Columbia since 1887. The warming hasn’t been uniform: you can see from the
graph above that some years are cooler than average and some are warmer, but
the overall trend is slowly upward. This is consistent with the rising global
temperatures that climatologists have predicted with increasing certainty for
decades.
It
is hard to take any of this seriously, but it is interesting to look at the
predictions. Plus it is just fun to
anticipate what the groundhog will do.
 |
| Phil's forecast of an early spring. Image Credit: Climate Central. |
If
you plot Phil the Groundhog’s historical predictions against temperatures, it
almost looks like the furry forecaster is on to something. Each line represents
a year when he predicted spring would come early. As you can see in the chart
above, he’s gone for a long winter and a late spring most of the time. However,
in recent years, he’s been calling for an early spring more and more frequently
— and sure enough, spring temperatures have been rising over that same period.
 |
| The average temperature for Columbia for the six weeks starting February 2 vs Phil's forecast of an early spring. Click here for an interactive graph. Image Credit: Climate Central. |
Furthermore,
when you plot his calls for an early spring against the record for Columbia,
you find that he has been right half the time.
That’s about as good as a coin toss.
Phil’s
reputation has given rise to other groundhog soothsayers. Here in the South there is General Beauregard
Lee in Georgia, Chattanooga Chuck in Tennessee, and Sir Walter Wally in North
Carolina. Each one purporting to know
what is ahead for spring.
Here
are the predictions for 2013:
Punxsutawney Phil early spring
General Beauregard Lee more winter
Chattanooga Chuck early spring
Sir Walter Wally more winter
So,
there you have it for 2013.
