Tuesday, June 4, 2013

Is Andrea About To Form?

Early Start

Hurricane season began June 1st and by all accounts it is expected to be an active season.  Is the season about to get underway?  It seems the computers think so.  The vast majority of the computers have been indicating that something could form in the Gulf of Mexico this week.

There was an area of disturbed weather extending from the Yucatan Peninsula northeast into the Gulf of Mexico Monday evening.  Moisture was streaming north from the western Caribbean Sea.  No indications of development have been noted over the past 24 hours.

However, computer models suggest that thunderstorm activity will be on the increase today into Wednesday.  The latest Regional Precision Model (RPM) has a circulation forming in the Gulf north of Yucatan on Wednesday.  The system would then move north curving northeast into the Apalachee Bay on Thursday.

The 72-forecast valid Thursday evening at 00z June 7, 2013.  Click on the image for a larger view.  Image Credit: WSI.

The above model has the system coming onshore late Thursday afternoon and moving northeast toward coastal South Carolina.  That is where the heaviest rainfall would occur.  It could be breezy for the coastal sections, but the system is not expected to be very strong.