Sunday, July 9, 2023

The 2023 Heat Wave

Every year before summer starts people ask me if it is going to be a hot summer. I usually tell them that it is Columbia, South Carolina, of course it is going to be hot. However, this summer has been a little different and not what I expected. Let me give you a couple of examples. 
 
Columbia, South Carolina had its 13th coldest May on record (Avg. T=68.9˚F) this year. That was followed by the 17th coldest June on record (Avg. T=76.2˚F). So maybe it will not be so hot this summer. Then came July. The first 8 days have put the month on track for the 8th warmest July even though the highest temperature has been 95˚F. It has been the low temperature pushing the average up as it has put the month on track for the 3rd warmest low temperature. 
 
When you see the reports for Texas and the Southwest about the current heat wave this does not seem so bad. I was amazed how far north the heat has been driven. Take the example of the weather station at Norman Wells in the Northwest Territories in Canada. It is at about latitude 65˚N and yesterday it reported a high temperature of 100˚F. This beat its previous all-time high temperature record by 5˚F. On top of that it had visibilities of about a mile in smoke from wildfires. Truly epic. A cold front passed late in the day and winds shifted blowing up to 40 mph. This blew the smoke away and lowered the temperature. 
 
I have been following the media reports of the heat wave this year. As meteorologists we often do not know how the pattern will evolve until we get into the season. The models have not always given us a clear picture, but now we have a better sense of what lies ahead. 
 
High pressure in the middle of the atmosphere was centered over Texas early in the summer which was responsible for the start of the heat wave there. Over time it expanded and now stretches from Florida to Texas to the Southwest. The high pressure is centered over New Mexico and by the end of the week it will be over Arizona. This will push the heat wave into California and north to Washington state. 
 

The atmospheric pattern at 500 mb (~18,000 ft.). This is the forecast for next Sunday July 16, 2023 from the European model. The H represents the center of the high pressure system and the L the low pressure system. These will not move much over the next week.


Temperatures will be hotter than normal across much of the southern U.S. by next weekend. Readings in Death Valley, California may approach 130˚F. Even in the central valley of California temperatures will be above 110˚F. (The lowest relative humidity I ever experienced was in Fresno, CA at 4%. It was drier than Death Valley.) Parts of South Carolina may approach 100˚F with heat indices in the range of 105-108˚F. No doubt the heat will continue to be news. 
 

Projected high temperatures for Sunday July 16, 2023 from the European model. Actual temperatures may differ slightly, but the overall pattern has higher confidence. It will be hot from the intermountain region, the Southwest, Texas into the Southeast.

 Notice the low-pressure system in Canada. The combined flow around it and the high over Arizona will push cooler air into the Midwest. The 6 to 10 day forecast reflects the evolving pattern. 

 

From the National Weather Service. This is the 6 to 10 day outlook for July 15-19 made on July 9. The cool weather in the central U.S. will be short-lived. The heat wave will begin to expand northward after this time.


 However, this will be temporary. The computer models suggest that the heat will begin to build north and east during the third week of July. The area that may escape much of the heat will likely be around the Great Lakes to the Northeast. 
 
Don’t think that this is the end of the story. I have only looked at the temperature here. There will be areas struck by severe thunderstorms and floods mainly in areas outside the heat wave. We have already seen examples of this over the past few weeks. Thus, the summer of extremes is likely to continue. 
 
I wonder what August will look like. 

Friday, January 14, 2022

Southeast Storm January 15-16, 2022

Winter Storm Thoughts: 

A storm system will be moving through the Southeast this weekend bringing a variety of winter precipitation. Most of the bad weather for the Carolinas will be on Sunday. The computer models this week have been producing some wild solutions. These usually resolve themselves as we get closer to the event. The following is directed to the areas of central South Carolina. 

Note: please consult the latest advisories and warnings from either the National Weather Service in your area or a trusted professional meteorologist. There are often last-minute changes which cannot be anticipated here.

An upper-level storm system will be moving through the Southeast on Sunday as depicted in the picture below. Warm, moist air will be streaming northward of the system and pushing over the cold, dry air in the Carolinas. This will produce the winter precipitation this weekend. 

 

The storm system at 500 mbs at 7 a.m. ET Sunday, January 16, 2022. credit: Pivotal Weather


Precipitation will be spread across the Southeast on Saturday and will begin to move into the Carolinas Saturday night. It will start as rain in the midlands of South Carolina and could be mixed with sleet in the northern sections at the onset. The rain will change to freezing rain as the air cools from evaporation. Ice will begin to accumulate, but it will be a problem for those areas north of I-20.  

Ice accumulation in the Columbia area should be confined to about 0.1 inch. This is not enough to cause much in the way of power outages. Most of the freezing rain will occur between 5 a.m. and 10 a.m. for Columbia.

The picture below shows what the situation will look like at daybreak on Sunday. Winds will be increasing in the Carolinas in advance of the system with gusts up to 40 mph. This will create a dangerous wind chill in some areas and may aggravate the number of power outages across the region. 

 

Surface projection at 7 a.m. Sunday, January 16, 2022, from the ECMWF model. This is a 48 hour projection. credit: Pivotal Weather.


 

The ice accumulation will increase to the north of I-20. Amounts of about .25-.50 inch can be expected from Newberry County to Chesterfield County. Power outages will be more likely there. The worst icing will be through the piedmont of South Carolina into central North Carolina and power outages will likely be widespread. 

 

Projected ice accumulation from the ECMWF model ending 7 a.m. Monday, January 17. credit: Pivotal Weather


 

Most of the snow will be in the upstate of South Carolina and throughout much of western North Carolina. The highest snow totals will be in the mountains. The I-85 corridor will be an area hit by snow, freezing rain and sleet. It is expected to be difficult to travel through this area on Sunday. 

 

Projected snow accumulation from the ECMWF model as of 7 a.m. Monday, January 17, 2022. credit: Pivotal Weather


 

Thus, the area north of I-20 and inland up the East coast should prepare for winter weather. Travel will be difficult in many areas. Power outages and wind chill will create dangerous conditions for some. Keep up on the latest conditions and be prepared for anything. Conditions will only slowly improve next week. 

Wednesday, August 5, 2020

Ten Years of Climate Matters

Note: I am not the official historian for Climate Matters, but I was there in the beginning. Much has happened behind the scenes to make this program a success. Many played a part in the program over the years and you made a difference. Thank you so much from this broadcast meteorologist.

There are many in the program and I hope they will contribute to the ongoing story of this extraordinary effort. This is my story.

Background: 

Climate Matters was Joe Witte’s idea who had spent a career as a broadcast meteorologist in Philadelphia, New York City, and Washington, D.C. Why not use weathercasts to educate viewers about climate change? One day in 2009 Joe approached Ed Maibach, director of the Center for Climate Change Communication at George Mason University, with that question. Their conversation led to writing a grant proposal to the National Science Foundation.

They needed certain things to be in place before submitting the proposal. Joe sent an email to Paul Gross, head of the Station Scientist Committee of the American Meteorological Society, asking for someone to be an advisor to the project. Dan Satterfield got his name in first and became that advisor. A few days later Joe asked if I would consider becoming the test case.

My reply as to why I should be the test case was that “I do not live in a red state; I live in a dark red state. If you can talk about climate change here, you can talk about it anywhere.” Rich O’Dell, General Manager for WLTX-TV, wrote the letter pledging our support to the grant proposal.

The National Science Foundation approved the grant in the fall of 2009 and planning began for a meeting of all of the participants. That meeting occurred at George Mason University on November 30, 2009. It brought together George Mason University, Climate Central, and WLTX-TV in a pioneering program that would be called Climate Matters to educate viewers about how climate change was affecting them locally.

WLTX Weather Center


A Field Experiment:

There was much work to do from the initial meeting. The scientific field experiment had to be designed so that we could see the reaction of the viewers. About a dozen segments were developed by Climate Central along with the graphics. Those were delivered to me when done and I had to get them into our graphics system for use on air.

This would take about six months to accomplish. During this time a pre-survey was taken of the Columbia television market viewers to create the baseline for measuring results. Once that was completed we could start the program.

Climate Matters aired for the first time on August 2, 2010 on WLTX-TV in Columbia, South Carolina. The segments were all aired over the course of the next ten months ending in June 2011. This was followed by a post-survey that took months to complete. No field experiment is ever perfect and this one had more than its fair share of problems. However we persevered and were able to get results.

The project was summarized in a paper  published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. It went through extensive peer-review which made it a better paper. If you are in broadcasting, I encourage you to read it (it is open access). We also published a companion paper based on work done in the summer of 2012.

Program Begins to Grow:

It was never my intention to stop doing Climate Matters when the field experiment ended. However, it would have been harder without the support of Climate Central. They were able to secure enough funding to keep the program going while slowly expanding its reach to other markets. It was challenging at first to satisfy all the requests, but the graphics were always first class and got better over time.

One of the segments that created the biggest reaction in the first year was about how increasing carbon dioxide was increasing the growth of poison ivy as well as the toxicity, based on an experiment at Duke University. This was and continues to be an excellent example of ongoing climate change. In 2013 I received the Award for Excellence in Science Reporting by a Broadcast Meteorologist from the American Meteorological Society for this story.

Receiving the Award for Excellence in Science Reporting by a Broadcast Meteorologist from Dr. Louis Uccellini, AMS President, in 2013.


In that same year a larger project to test Climate Matters began in Virginia. It included broadcast meteorologists such Bob Ryan, Sean Sublette and Carrie Rose. The program was getting bigger and Climate Central needed a director. They hired Bernadette Woods Placky to be that director. She started on Earth Day 2013 and I’m sure she had her hands full that first year. However, she really got the ball rolling and the program kept growing.

Bernadette also helped organize workshops for broadcasters to learn more about climate science. She was able to attract some of the nation’s top climate scientists. The workshops were quite helpful and generated interest in the program. The effort was often joined by Ed Maibach of George Mason University, Bud Ward, co-founder of the Society of Environmental Journalists, and Susan Hassol of Climate Communication.

Heidi Cullen, a scientist at Climate Central, posted on Twitter a graphic in early 2014 showing how much we depended on California for our vegetables. The state was in a terrible drought and it was about to get worse. I convinced WLTX-TV that we could address the rising costs of vegetables by showing viewers how to garden. They agreed and Gandy’s Garden was born. It was a success and was an offshoot of Climate Matters. The garden will be the topic of a future post.

Recognition of the program began to grow. I was interviewed by Rolling Stone Magazine, The New York Times, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Columbia Journalism Review and many other publications in addition to National Public Radio. Even the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) took note and produced the following video:


I was invited to the White House to interview President Obama as part of the release of the 3rd National Climate Assessment. You can see more of that in my post of May, 2014.

And Grow It Did:

I was delighted when 100 broadcast meteorologists had signed up to use Climate Matters. However, Climate Central worked with George Mason University, Yale Climate Connections, Climate Communications, NOAA, NASA and the American Meteorological Society to continue to expand the numbers. By the time I retired in 2019 there were more than 700 broadcast meteorologists using Climate Matters. The program had spread internationally and expanded to include journalists.

Last summer I had the pleasure of spending part of the day at Climate Central based in Princeton, New Jersey. I had never been there in all of the years working with them. I was amazed at how much planning and work goes into producing material for each individual market. When you see Climate Matters in your television market it often represents data specific to your market. Now multiply that by over 200 markets and it is truly a herculean effort.

Reflection:

I have been retired for just over a year and Climate Matters celebrated its tenth anniversary on August 2, 2020. The material is now seen in 93% of the U.S. television markets and is used by 940 broadcast meteorologists and 690 journalists as of the end of July. It has come a long way in 10 years.

Thinking back to the beginning I could not imagine the program being as large as it is today. However, even then I predicted that a discussion of climate change would become the norm in weathercasts one day. It happened faster than I imagined.

Joe Witte’s idea has blossomed into a worldwide effort. Joe recently summed it up in a note “…who would have guessed 10 years?...The model of the three sectors of climate scientists, the TV mets as communicators, and communication academics made for well-crafted messages.” Well said Joe and thanks for getting to ball rolling.

Thanks to everyone who had a part in this. I do not know everyone, but it’s safe to say that you made a difference. Just before the 10th anniversary another paper (https://journals.ametsoc.org/wcas/article/doi/10.1175/WCAS-D-20-0026.1/353498/Impact-of-the-Climate-Matters-Program-on-Public) was accepted for publication in the AMS journal Weather, Climate, and Society entitled “Impact of the Climate Matters Program on Public Understanding of Climate Change”. The final sentence in the abstract states: “These findings suggest that climate reporting by TV weathercasters, as enabled by the Climate Matters program, may be increasing the climate literacy (of) the American people.” Good information by trusted sources will help inform decisions.

Alex Calamia, WLTX-TV morning meteorologist, recently interviewed me for the 10th anniversary. Here is the full interview which is about 40 minutes. My thanks to Alex for his work in producing this video, I hope you enjoy.