Early Start
Hurricane
season began June 1st and by all accounts it is expected to be an
active season. Is the season about to
get underway? It seems the computers
think so. The vast majority of the
computers have been indicating that something could form in the Gulf of Mexico
this week.
There
was an area of disturbed weather extending from the Yucatan Peninsula northeast
into the Gulf of Mexico Monday evening. Moisture
was streaming north from the western Caribbean Sea. No indications of development have been noted
over the past 24 hours.
However,
computer models suggest that thunderstorm activity will be on the increase today
into Wednesday. The latest Regional
Precision Model (RPM) has a circulation forming in the Gulf north of Yucatan on
Wednesday. The system would then move
north curving northeast into the Apalachee Bay on Thursday.
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| The 72-forecast valid Thursday evening at 00z June 7, 2013. Click on the image for a larger view. Image Credit: WSI. |
The
above model has the system coming onshore late Thursday afternoon and moving
northeast toward coastal South Carolina.
That is where the heaviest rainfall would occur. It could be breezy for the coastal sections,
but the system is not expected to be very strong.
Rainfall
will likely be the biggest issue with this system. The European model has well over an inch of
rain possible for the Midlands will higher amounts toward the coast. This model likewise has the system moving out
of the Gulf and through the coastal areas of South Carolina.
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| The ECMWF surface forecast valid Friday evening at 00z June 8, 2013. Click on the image for a larger view. Image Credit: WSI. |
The
timing of this system could be off owing to the fact that it hasn’t developed
yet. There is also some uncertainty on
the track. This will be important for
rainfall. The system must track through
the coastal areas inland if the Midlands are to see significant rain. If the system tracks along the immediate
coast or just offshore, then rainfall will likely be light.
It
appears from a consensus of the computer models that passage through South
Carolina is likely to be on Friday. Locally
heavy rains and flooding are more likely in the coastal areas of South Carolina
and North Carolina.
If
the computer trends continue and the system develops into a tropical storm, it
would be named Andrea. It may become a
tropical storm by Thursday moving inland later that day. This system is not likely to form in a
hurricane, but could still be a problem for the eastern Gulf coast northeast
into the coastal Carolinas.
In Its Wake
The
weather is likely to improve over the weekend as the system moves up the
eastern seaboard. The chance for rain
will diminish, but the high humidity could remain. Conditions are likely to allow the heat to
build early next week. This combined
with the humidity is likely to bring very uncomfortable conditions to the
Midlands. The heat index may become
important by the middle of next week for the first time this summer.
All
of this has factored into the seven day forecast. There will likely be refinements in the
forecast as events unfold. However,
there is good confidence in the broad picture.
Thus prepare for rain at the end of the workweek and then prepare for a
build-up of heat and humidity next week.
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| The seven-day forecast for Columbia, SC made on Monday, June 3, 2013. Click on the image for a larger view. Image Credit: WLTX-TV. |
