Most
people in South Carolina usually dream of a white Christmas. There have been so few times that it has
happened in this area. In fact Climate
Central did the calculations and the chances are less that 1% of seeing a white
Christmas in Columbia. Where is the best
place to be? See the map below:
 |
| The chance of seeing a white Christmas across the U.S. Click on the image for a larger version. Image Credit: Climate Central. |
Even
though the map shows the historical odds of a white Christmas, the actual
amount of snow in a given location can vary a lot from year to year due to
natural weather variations. For example,
this year, U.S. snow cover in mid-December was the largest it’s been in a decade. Outside the U.S., it’s worth noting that
Siberia, generally one of the coldest places on Earth for this time of year,
had a scorching November with temperatures up to 14°F higher than normal. That warm trend has continued into December,
leaving a "snow shortage".
We can identify with a snow shortage.
The
graphic below shows the warmest, coldest, wettest, and the whitest Christmas on
record for Columbia. A Climate Central analysis found that winter is the
fastest-warming season in the U.S. over the last 100 years. That's in step with the global increase in
temperatures caused primarily by heat-trapping greenhouse gases. While climate change is causing winters to
warm overall, temperatures on a single day such as Christmas (or any other day
of the year) can show large variability—coming in much colder, or much warmer,
in a given year than the overall trend would suggest. Christmas will definitely feel like winter
this year.
 |
| The extremes of Christmas Day in Columbia, SC. Click on the image for a larger version. Image Credit: Climate Central. |
So
why am I dreaming of a dry Christmas?
It
turns out the rain has fallen for the past eight Christmas Days (see table
below). Think of it, if you have a child
less than nine years of age, they have never seen a dry Christmas Day. What a bummer! Santa brings certain toys, but you can’t go
out a play with them. How about the tradition
of playing some sport with friends after the Christmas meal (if your big meal
is midday), which has not been a good idea of late.
|
Year
|
Christmas
Day Rainfall
|
|
2005
|
0.49”
|
|
2006
|
0.89”
|
|
2007
|
0.10”
|
|
2008
|
0.08”
|
|
2009
|
3.06”
|
|
2010
|
0.07”
|
|
2011
|
0.17”
|
|
2012
|
0.16”
|
Interestingly it has rained 48 times on Christmas Day in the past 125 years of records. This
year Mother Nature is sending us a hard freeze for Christmas morning. However, it will be a dry cold; the first dry
Christmas since 2004. Enjoy!
