Snow For The Midlands

UPDATE: 1 p.m. Saturday

The precipitation that moved through the Midlands this morning was mixed with snow with more snow in the northern sections.  Daniel Bonds reported from Winnsboro that the snow fell of over an hour with only trace accumulations thanks to a warm ground.  The RPM verified reasonably well on this event.

Radar is showing a break in the precipitation for the early afternoon.  However, another band of precipitation is expected between 4 and 9 p.m. for the northern half of the Midlands. This will likely be in the form of wet snow and there could be some accumulation.  The pictures below are from the 12z run of the Regional Precision Model (RPM).  The 15z run is similar, but backs off on coverage.  It still has the same idea.

From the 12Z RPM.  Image Credit: WLTX.

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Computer models began suggesting that a fast-moving weather system in the middle part of the atmosphere could bring snow to the midlands of South Carolina this weekend.  The models backed off from that forecast during much of the week, but still hinted at something.  Well, something is here.  Snow became a real possibility once the high-resolution models came into play in the short-range.

A vigorous trough with the energy moving through the Southeast valid for 18z Saturday, February 16.  The forecast uses the NAM model based on the 00z data for Saturday, February 16.  Click on the image for a larger version.  Image Credit: WSI.

A vigorous upper-level disturbance will be passing over the Midlands late Saturday.  There will be enough moisture as the cold air moves in to produce snow for the area.  The situation will be dynamic and constantly changing during the day.  Rain will begin to fall in the Piedmont before daybreak.  The air will be chilled by evaporative cooling and the rain will change to snow.

Remembering The 1973 Snowstorm In South Carolina

February 9-10, 2013 marked the 40^th anniversary of the greatest snowstorm to hit South Carolina in modern times.  Snow in the South is rare enough, but this set many records across the states of Georgia and South Carolina.  Here are some of the notable snowfalls from the storm:

                        Rimini, SC                              24 inches

   Macon, GA                            19 inches

                        Branchville, SC                      19 inches

                        Lake City, SC                         17.5 inches

                        Blackville, SC                         17 inches

                        Columbia, SC                         16 inches

                        Aiken, SC                               15 inches

                        Summerville, SC                    15 inches

                        Springfield, SC                       15 inches

                        Kingstree, SC                         13 inches

                        Camden                                 12 inches

These are just a few of the totals from this remarkable storm.  Generally the snowfall was between 10 to 20 inches over much of central Georgia and central and southern South Carolina.  Winds will strong enough to produce drifts to 5 feet in Sumter and Clarendon counties.

Many refer to this storm as a blizzard and to many in the South it seemed like one.  However, I could not find evidence that it met the criteria for one.  No doubt it was a significant snowstorm which would rival storms much farther north.

Timing is everything for snowstorms in the Deep South.  Typically when it gets cold enough to produce snow the air is too dry.  The right mix of cold air, moisture, and intensifying storm are rare.  Thus, forecasting such storms is quite challenging.

The challenge was much greater back in 1973.  Knowledge about the dynamics of such storms and the modern technology to forecast them was not as advanced as today.  Geostationary satellites were not in standard use or available to local forecasters.   It would not be until the 1980s that much of the dynamics would be known and satellites would be commonplace for forecasters.  The forecast of the New England blizzard this past weekend, days ahead, would have been impossible back then.

The Southeast Drought Continues

Droughts can be insidious.  Just when you think they’re gone, they’re back.  Actually it never went away in the Southeast, it just moved around.  The center of the drought began in northeast Florida in 2011 and moved to southern Georgia a year later.  Now the center of the drought is central Georgia and it is beginning to expand thanks to a dry January.

The Drought Monitor for the end of January 2011-13.  Click on the image for a larger view.  Image Credit: USDA.

The current drought began in the Southeast with the end of El Nino in 2010.  That was followed by two years of La Nina which brought drier than normal conditions particularly in the winter and spring.  The worst of the drought has been centered in central Georgia where extreme to exceptional drought conditions have persisted for two years.

However, drought conditions for southeast Georgia and northeast Florida actually disappeared this past summer thanks to two tropical weather systems (Beryl & Debby) which inundated the region with rain in late May and June.  Drought is creeping back into those areas.

Groundhog Predictions

This past Saturday (February 2) was Groundhog Day, a day of anticipation by many tired of winter.  Each year people wait to see what the groundhog has to say about the coming spring.  The most famous groundhog is Punxsutawney Phil in Pennsylvania and has the longest running record.  Predictions from 1888 to 1900 were intermittent and became regular after that time.

Punxsutawney Phil comes out of his hole each Groundhog Day, like clockwork, to tell us if we can expect an early spring or another six weeks of winter. If Phil sees his shadow, he’ll go back underground to wait out the next chilly month and half. If there’s no shadow, Phil — and the rest of us — know that spring is right around the corner.

Average temperature for Columbia, SC, from February 2 - March 16.  Image Credit: Climate Central.

The six-week period that starts on February 2nd has been getting gradually warmer in Columbia since 1887. The warming hasn’t been uniform: you can see from the graph above that some years are cooler than average and some are warmer, but the overall trend is slowly upward. This is consistent with the rising global temperatures that climatologists have predicted with increasing certainty for decades.

US: Warmest Year On Record

As many probably know by now, 2012 was the warmest year on record for the contiguous United States.  In fact last year obliterated to previous record.  The record was eclipsed by a full one degree Fahrenheit.  This was an astounding result and is outside any normal experience.  The graphic below illustrates the comparison with the five warmest years on record.

A comparison of the average temperature for the contiguous U.S. with the warmest years on record.  Image Credit: Climate Central.

Every state saw warmer than normal temperatures for the year, however the amount of heat was not uniform.  Record heat was reported in the Southwest, Central U.S., and the Northeast.  It was quite hot in the Southeast, but much of the area escaped the hottest temperatures.  Many of the all-time record high temperatures set during the Dust Bowl era fell in the central U.S. this past summer.

A look at the distribution of heat across the U.S. for 2012.  Image Credit: Climate Central.

Climate Matters Wins

The 93^rd annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) has been going on this week in Austin, Texas.  An awards banquet was held Wednesday evening where I received the Award for Excellence in Science Reporting by a Broadcast Meteorologist.  The award was for the pioneering program Climate Matters which began in July, 2010.  I am the seventh recipient of the award.

Climate Matters Page on the WLTX website.  Image Credit: WLTX.

Climate Matters is a program that attempts to educate viewers about climate change and how it is already affecting their lives.  Many of the segments are localized to the effects on South Carolina, but may also apply to other regions.  The reports use only peer-reviewed published work of scientists involved in climate change research.

However, let me tell you how this came about.  It started with my own interest in climate change.  I was at a retirement party for Dr. John Carpenter who was in the Geology Department and longtime director of the Center for Science Education at the University of South Carolina.  During that party a couple of professors came up to me and ask if I thought climate change was real.  I told them that I thought it was, but had not really given it much thought.

A Not So Merry Christmas!

'Twas the night before Christmas, when all through the house
Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse;
The stockings were hung by the chimney with care,
In hopes that St. Nicholas soon would be there;
The children were nestled all snug in their beds,
While visions of sugar-plums danced in their heads;
And mamma in her 'kerchief, and I in my cap,
Had just settled down for a long winter's nap,
When out on the lawn there arose such a clatter,
I sprang from the bed to see what was the matter.

From The Night Before Christmas

For some there were no children snug in the beds with visions of sugar-plums dancing in their heads.  No time to settle down for a long winter’s nap.  The winds were howling and the snow was flying, while tornadoes danced south keeping everyone on edge.  This year Mother Nature would be part of the tale.

Meteorologists were kept busy forecasting what’s next;

Many monitored each storm and sent out the text;

For many the weather was not so genteel;

Like the tornado that passed through the heart of Mobile;

Most were quite nervous as the storms moved east;

Not knowing what to expect from this awesome beast;

But most survived Mother Nature’s disorder;

Because they were warned by meteorologists and reporters.

There was no surprise from the Christmas Day storm.  It had been forecast well in advance.  The European model hinted that it might take place as I mentioned on-air a week before it happened.  What happened?

It's All About Chemistry

In 1827 the French mathematician and scientist, Jean-Baptiste Joseph Fourier postulated that something in the atmosphere was helping keep the earth warmer than it might otherwise.  He is generally credited with discovering the greenhouse effect even though he did not coin the phrase.  However, his work set the stage for later developments in the nineteenth century.

It was the British scientist John Tyndall who demonstrated the absorption of infrared radiation from different gases in 1861.  His work found that nearly all of the greenhouse effect was due to just a few trace gases like water vapor and carbon dioxide (CO2).  This was a startling discovery, because it had huge implications for Earth’s climate.

The Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius was the first to actually detail how a doubling of carbon dioxide would change the global temperature with the publication of his work in 1896.  His work eventually led to the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 1903.  He is recognized with beginning modern climate science.

The discovery of global warming is a fascinating story.  I highly recommend the book by Spencer Weart by the name The Discovery of Global Warming.  If you are interested in the scientific papers, it is available in the collection called the The Warming Papers edited by David Archer and Raymond Pierrehumbert.

Note that the foundation of climate science occurred over a century ago.  It is also noteworthy that the trace gases were recognized for their ability to influence Earth’s climate as far back as the nineteenth century.

Fast forward to today.  The burning of fossil fuels has fueled (pardon the pun) the world economic growth.  China and the U.S. are the two largest emitters of CO2.  In the latest accounting the global growth in emissions continues.

How do we know that the increases in CO2 come from burning fossil fuels?

Denial Amongst TV Weathercasters

I was surprised this past week by an article in Rolling Stone magazine.  The article covered the issue of the denial of human-caused climate change among the nation’s television weathercasters.  It is an issue that has puzzled me given the science and the consensus among climate scientists.  One has to question why so many TV weathercasters seem to know more than climate scientists.  The article highlights a rather vocal group of communicators and can be seen here.

Screen grab of the Rolling Stone website.  Image Credit: Rolling Stone

There is one statement that I disagree with in the article.  It states that “Yet the cause of much of the meteorological mayhem – global warming – was rarely mentioned on air.”  The author implies that Sandy was caused by global warming.  I do not believe that this is accurate.  Sandy and other “meteorological mayhem” was enhanced in it destructiveness by global warming and climate change as I have written previously.

We're Melting! Melting!

“You cursed brat! Look what you've done! I'm melting! melting! Oh, what a world! What a world! Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness? Oooooh, look out! I'm going! Oooooh! Ooooooh!”

                                                                                          From the Wizard of OZ

Dorothy watches the Wicked Witch of the West melt in the Wizard of Oz.  Image Credit: Everett Collection.

How many times have you seen this movie?  I won’t spoil the ending if you haven’t.  However, I couldn’t help remembering this line from the movie Wizard of Oz as I read a new report this week.

The report was published in the November 30 issue of the journal Science.  It was the work of 47 experts in glaciology from 26 institutions worldwide and the best estimate we have of the amount of ice being lost from Greenland and Antarctica.  The team analyzed different sets of data covering the period from 1992 to 2011 and included satellite measurements from NASA.