The
National Weather Service issued a Winter Storm Watch for the midlands of South
Carolina Sunday afternoon. It is for the
time period from Tuesday morning to Wednesday afternoon. Immediately everyone was jumping up and down
for joy over the prospect for snow. Not
so fast bucko! Everything is not as it
seems.
It
took quite a bit of careful analysis to decipher what the scenario would
be. The computer models have been all
over the place with this system; from no snow to more than 15” of snow. Even our own in-house model has seen big
run-to-run swings with 2 to 4 inches of snow in one run to no snow the
next. So what to do?
I
have decided that the American model (GFS) seems to be preforming the best for
now. The NAM model has been showing wild
swings run-to-run and the European model (ECMWF) seems too cold. None of the models are perfect, but the GFS
seems to be closest to actual observations in the forecast.
Thus,
here is the forecast for Columbia, South Carolina over the next seven
days. This was posted Sunday, January
26, 2014:
 |
| The seven-day forecast posted Sunday, January 26, 2014 for Columbia, SC. Click on the image for a larger view. Image Credit: WLTX-TV. |
The
scenario for the upcoming winter weather should be as follows:
 |
| The surface forecast for the U.S. as of 18z Monday, January 27, 2014. Click on the image for a larger view. Image Credit: NOAA\WPC. |
A
cold front is expected to pass through the Midlands around midday on
Monday. Cold Arctic air will begin
pushing into the region on brisk winds overnight. Temperatures will be near freezing by Tuesday
morning. Precipitation will begin to
spread northeast from the Gulf coast states and should begin to move into South
Carolina during the afternoon.
The
precipitation is likely to range from a light rain/sleet mix in the southern
part of the Midlands to a snow/sleet mix in the north. There could be an extended period of sleet
through the afternoon into the evening before the precipitation changes to
snow. Thus, this storm is likely to be a
mixed bag for the Midlands.
Here
are two forecasts from the GFS model which cover the same storm, but break down
the precipitation into snow and sleet. The
sleet is expected first with the snow accumulation after the sleet
accumulation.
 |
| The forecast for sleet accumulation as of 7 pm Wednesday, January 29, 2014. The forecast is from the 18z run of the GFS model. Click on the image for a larger view. Image Credit: WLTX-TV. |
 |
| The forecast for snow accumulation as of 7 pm Wednesday, January 29, 2014. The forecast is from the 18z run of the GFS model. Click on the image for a larger view. Image Credit: WLTX-TV. |
It
gets worst for the coast. There is a
significant possibility for an ice storm (freezing rain) for the coastal areas
of South Carolina Tuesday night. In this
area the ice could build up to a quarter of an inch. I cannot dismiss the possibility of freezing
rain for Orangeburg and Clarendon counties.
They may see it all, i.e. rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow. However, the snow accumulation for these
counties may only be a dusting.
Do
not take the forecast numbers as the gospel truth as to what is about to
happen. We have noticed significant
variance for each run and they may not converge for another 24 hours.
Bottom-line:
It is going to be a #wintermess Tuesday and Wednesday across South
Carolina. Travel will become difficult
Tuesday night as temperatures drop into the mid-20s and roads will be icy by
Wednesday morning. There will likely be
power outages for those areas that get freezing rain. Consider yourself lucky if all you have to
deal with is sleet and snow. This is
more likely to happen north of I-20.
Be
sure to follow my updates on this storm on Twitter: @JimGandyWLTX and on
Facebook at WLTX. Others to follow from
the weather team are @amyaaronson, @Daniel_Bonds, and @ChristineWLTX. You can also check for #wintermess on
Twitter.
This
should be fun to follow. I will have an
update on the impending weather tomorrow evening.
