My Day at the White House

Background:

On April 23^rd my news director, Marybeth Jacoby, received an email from NASA stating that the 3^rd National Climate Assessment would be released on Tuesday, May 6^th.  She forwarded the email with a note “How can we make this BIG?”  I started thinking about how I would approach it.

I received a call from the White House just after our 7 p.m. newscast on Thursday, May 2^nd.  It was Keith Maley, Regional Communications Director, and he was inviting me to the White House for the release of the 3^rd National Climate Assessment.  I was being invited because of my work in educating viewers about how climate change was already affecting their lives and how it would impact them in the future.  WLTX-TV partnered with the Center for Climate Change Communication at George Mason University and Climate Central to develop a program called Climate Matters.

The segments began airing in August 2010 and were highly focused topics used within the weathercasts.  Typically these segments ran from 30 to 60 seconds not including anchor interaction.

I was delighted to be able to accept their invitation.  What an honor!  As you can imagine there was a lot a planning to do at the last minute.  There was a scramble to book flights and hotel for an event taking place on Tuesday, May 6^th.  I also responded to Marybeth’s email “It doesn’t get much bigger than a presidential interview. Mission Accomplished!"

My producer, Sharranda Neal, and I flew out of Columbia, SC, Monday morning and arrived in Washington, D.C., mid-afternoon.  We hit the ground running trying to shoot stand-ups for the evening shows and the morning show the next day.  There were a host of technical issues we had to overcome, but we managed to get the job done.

We returned to the hotel quite tired and prepared for the next day that we knew would be hectic.  We were not disappointed.

"Years of Living Dangerously"

Climate change is a complex topic and even some of the experts have a difficult time grasping all of the implications.  As the climate changes so does the society and world in which we live.  The most recent findings of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) point out what the science knows and the risks ahead.

Now a documentary series tries to bring the knowledge of climate change to the ordinary person.  It does this by telling the stories of people affected by climate change.  How does degrading the environment affect the world and the food you eat?  How does drought relate to climate change?  What are the risks involved in our future?

These are some of the questions addressed in a new Showtime series airing Sunday, April 13, 2014, at 10 p.m. called “Years of Living Dangerously”.  It is a nine-part series that will address a number of topics related to climate change.

The first episode is already available on the internet at the website www.yearsoflivingdangerously.com .  If you do not get Showtime, you can watch it here.  Below is a discussion on the documentary and climate change from two of the participants in the program on a recent Face The Nation on CBS:

Weather? Climate? Confused?

Have you noticed the attention the weather has been getting in the media?  The cold blast for much of the U.S. & Canada, the trapped ship in the Antarctic, and the storms hitting Europe around Christmas are just a few examples.  Other news reports that you may not have been aware were the floods in southern Brazil and in the Caribbean, the heat wave in Argentina, the usually cold weather in the Middle East.  These are all weather events.

Some media outlets are reporting the cold events indicate that we have little to fear from global warming.  Yet global warming does not cancel the seasons.  In fact what we know about our changing climate is to expect more weather extremes worldwide.   Not just heat waves, but more floods, droughts, and even energized storm systems.  This is how a changing climate translates into daily weather.

Often many in the media confuse the difference between weather and climate.  Don’t worry, because some meteorologists do too.  The weather is basically composed the events that unfold in the present.  Meanwhile climate looks at the long term average of weather.  By definition this is a 30-year period.  We can look at shorter term trends to look at how changes are progressing, but we still have to look at the climate period of 30 years.

I'm Dreaming of a Dry Christmas

Most people in South Carolina usually dream of a white Christmas.  There have been so few times that it has happened in this area.  In fact Climate Central did the calculations and the chances are less that 1% of seeing a white Christmas in Columbia.  Where is the best place to be?  See the map below:

The chance of seeing a white Christmas across the U.S.  Click on the image for a larger version.  Image Credit: Climate Central.

Even though the map shows the historical odds of a white Christmas, the actual amount of snow in a given location can vary a lot from year to year due to natural weather variations.  For example, this year, U.S. snow cover in mid-December was the largest it’s been in a decade.  Outside the U.S., it’s worth noting that Siberia, generally one of the coldest places on Earth for this time of year, had a scorching November with temperatures up to 14°F higher than normal.  That warm trend has continued into December, leaving a "snow shortage".  We can identify with a snow shortage.

Climate Change & Fall Colors

The colors of fall are greatly anticipated in this part of the country.  Some plan vacations around a particular week trying to be in the peak of color.  Normally tourists plan for the middle two weeks of October to enjoy the color of western North Carolina.  However, I was surprised on a recent trip into that area to see how late the change of color was this year.

Near Lake Adger in western North Carolina (about 10 miles east of Hendersonville) on October 21, 2013.  Notice the lack of color.  There was still a lot of green.  Click on the image for a larger view.  Image Credit: Jim Gandy

It got me thinking about the set-up this year.  The summer had been very wet, but fall had turned out to be quite dry.  It should have been a good year for color in western North Carolina.  This is not to say that there wasn’t color, but you didn’t see the splash of all the colors at once.

I came across a blog post by a plant physiologist at Appalachian State University which put this in perspective.  Dr. Howie Neufeld goes into detail about how trees change color and what factors can affect fall colors.  It is quite informative and worth a read, but here is an excerpt on the two main factors:

A Tale Of Two Halves

This summer has been one of persistence across the U.S. in the general weather pattern.  The West has been too dry and the East too wet.  Severe to exceptional drought covers much of the western half of the country, while flooding and downpours have drenched the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.  Some areas have seen relief from the devastating drought of last year and it has gotten worse for others.

The U.S. Drought Monitor for August 6, 2013.  This shows the areal extent of drought across the U.S. at this point in time.  Click on the image for a larger view.  Image Credit: NOAA/USDA.

The worst of the drought continues to be in the High Plains, but it is getting worse over much of the Southwest.  This has already led to an above normal wildfire season in the West.

Just Another Number?

Numbers have meaning only in context.  A temperature of 98.6 degrees F is normal body temperature, but only in context of the mean.  This is not normal for every person.  The S&P 500 crossing 1600 is meaningless unless it is in context of what the market is doing.  Is it going up or down?  How far has it gone from previous levels?  Only then does the number have meaning.

A milestone was reached recently, Thursday, May 9^th, at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii.  Levels of carbon dioxide reached 400 parts per million (ppm) for the first time in human existence.  Daily measurements are made at the observatory of the gases that lead to atmospheric change.  One of the main gases monitored is carbon dioxide (CO2).  Levels of 400.03 and 400.08 ppm were measured independently by the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Scripps Oceanographic Institute respectively.

Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii.  Click on the image for a larger version.  Image Credit: NOAA/ESRL.

This was a daily mean that was measured for the first time.  Hourly measurements exceeded this number quite a few times since mid-April.  The monthly mean of CO2 will likely peak this month, at a level of about 399 ppm, and then fall until October.  It is likely to pass the 400 ppm in the spring of next year.  The yearly mean will not likely cross this level until 2015 or 2016.

A Drought Worth Having

Droughts can be quite nasty with it comes to rainfall.  However, droughts can be a good thing when it comes to severe weather.  The U.S. is currently experiencing such a drought for tornadoes.

The monthly number of tornadoes for 2013 compared to the 1981-2010 average. Click on the image for a larger version.  Image Credit: Climate Central.

The year started off looking above normal, but that quickly turned in February.  Significantly fewer tornadoes were observed in March and April.  May is normally the peak of tornado season for much of the country.  The drought has continued and will likely continue into the middle of May.  It is hard to say if it will continue beyond that, but it is likely.

A Cool Start To May 2013

Just as we were getting used to hotter springs, Mother Nature pulls a fast one.  It has been unusual to say the least for South Carolina weather since April 26^th.  Cloudy, cool conditions have been the rule with plenty of rain.  The griping has begun as many are tied of conditions we normally attribute to Seattle.

My favorite tweet during the past week has been “Breaking news: This just in – Cleveland wants its weather back.”  I’m sure those in Cleveland might think this an improvement over what they normally get in early May.

So what has been happening?  Why has it been so cloudy and cool for so long?  When will this go away so that we can get on with summer?

The first half of spring was influenced by a weather pattern associated with a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation.  This was described in the previous post.  However, that has not driving the weather pattern recently.  Instead the jet stream has retreated to the north leaving upper-level low pressure systems isolated from the main flow.  This has resulted in a blocking pattern where weather systems slow to a crawl and can persist for days.

The weather pattern at 500 mb (~18,000 ft) on Saturday, May 4, 2013 at 12z UT.  The jet stream had retreated farther to the north leaving isolated pockets of low pressure over the mid-latitudes.  Click on the image for a larger version.  Image Credit: WLTX-TV.

Energy And Climate

The 2013 annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society took place this past January in Austin, Texas.  One of the topics was that of energy and climate.  Billionaire T. Boone Pickens spoke on Sunday evening before the annual meeting began.  It was an enjoyable evening and interesting to hear was he had to say.

T. Boone Pickens

First, he holds a degree in geology from Oklahoma State University.  Pickens said “I’m one of the few (petroleum) geologists that agree that global warming is happening.”  He agrees that we need to do something to mitigate the effects of the warming.  It is smarter to do something to avoid the problem rather than waiting until it happens to do anything.

However, he went on to say that hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) would be with us for the next 50 years.  Pickens said that wind and solar represent just 2% of the energy generation and he didn’t think that it would become substantial until it became economically more competitive with fossil fuels.  That means a price of about $6 for natural gas (it is just under $4 today).

Pickens is against the idea of a carbon tax or cap & trade.  However, he did not say whether he agreed with the idea of ending fossil fuel subsidies.  Tom Friedman of the New York Times has an interesting article on attacking carbon emissions and the fiscal debt.

Bad Place For Science

Two recent editorials in Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) are examples of why you don’t want to get your science from the editorial page.  The paper touts its views as conservative, but these examples are either meant to mislead or are out of ignorance.  They deserve to be put to rest once and for all.  You can read them here and here.

The first editorial attacks the notion that there is no consensus on climate change.  It uses a study published in November and can be read here.  The first red flag in the editorial is that they never mention where the study is published.  However, it did not take long for me to track down the paper.

It seems that the editorial originated with James Taylor, managing editor of The Heartland Institute’s Environment and Climate News, with a post he wrote on the Forbes website.  The original post on Forbes and thus the editorial in IBD have been thoroughly debunked here, here, and here.

Brian Angliss of Scholars and Rogues writes:

“The reality is that, contrary to claims made by Taylor and others at Heartland, every serious attempt to measure the degree of consensus among scientists and climate experts has concluded that the overwhelming majority of experts agree that climate is changing rapidly, that humans are the dominant drivers of the changes, and that model projections indicate that the changes will be highly disruptive if they’re not planned for. And every attempt to disprove the reported consensus has been disproved or shown to be based on distortions. Just like this attempt by Taylor has been.”

Groundhog Predictions

This past Saturday (February 2) was Groundhog Day, a day of anticipation by many tired of winter.  Each year people wait to see what the groundhog has to say about the coming spring.  The most famous groundhog is Punxsutawney Phil in Pennsylvania and has the longest running record.  Predictions from 1888 to 1900 were intermittent and became regular after that time.

Punxsutawney Phil comes out of his hole each Groundhog Day, like clockwork, to tell us if we can expect an early spring or another six weeks of winter. If Phil sees his shadow, he’ll go back underground to wait out the next chilly month and half. If there’s no shadow, Phil — and the rest of us — know that spring is right around the corner.

Average temperature for Columbia, SC, from February 2 - March 16.  Image Credit: Climate Central.

The six-week period that starts on February 2nd has been getting gradually warmer in Columbia since 1887. The warming hasn’t been uniform: you can see from the graph above that some years are cooler than average and some are warmer, but the overall trend is slowly upward. This is consistent with the rising global temperatures that climatologists have predicted with increasing certainty for decades.

US: Warmest Year On Record

As many probably know by now, 2012 was the warmest year on record for the contiguous United States.  In fact last year obliterated to previous record.  The record was eclipsed by a full one degree Fahrenheit.  This was an astounding result and is outside any normal experience.  The graphic below illustrates the comparison with the five warmest years on record.

A comparison of the average temperature for the contiguous U.S. with the warmest years on record.  Image Credit: Climate Central.

Every state saw warmer than normal temperatures for the year, however the amount of heat was not uniform.  Record heat was reported in the Southwest, Central U.S., and the Northeast.  It was quite hot in the Southeast, but much of the area escaped the hottest temperatures.  Many of the all-time record high temperatures set during the Dust Bowl era fell in the central U.S. this past summer.

A look at the distribution of heat across the U.S. for 2012.  Image Credit: Climate Central.

Climate Matters Wins

The 93^rd annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) has been going on this week in Austin, Texas.  An awards banquet was held Wednesday evening where I received the Award for Excellence in Science Reporting by a Broadcast Meteorologist.  The award was for the pioneering program Climate Matters which began in July, 2010.  I am the seventh recipient of the award.

Climate Matters Page on the WLTX website.  Image Credit: WLTX.

Climate Matters is a program that attempts to educate viewers about climate change and how it is already affecting their lives.  Many of the segments are localized to the effects on South Carolina, but may also apply to other regions.  The reports use only peer-reviewed published work of scientists involved in climate change research.

However, let me tell you how this came about.  It started with my own interest in climate change.  I was at a retirement party for Dr. John Carpenter who was in the Geology Department and longtime director of the Center for Science Education at the University of South Carolina.  During that party a couple of professors came up to me and ask if I thought climate change was real.  I told them that I thought it was, but had not really given it much thought.

It's All About Chemistry

In 1827 the French mathematician and scientist, Jean-Baptiste Joseph Fourier postulated that something in the atmosphere was helping keep the earth warmer than it might otherwise.  He is generally credited with discovering the greenhouse effect even though he did not coin the phrase.  However, his work set the stage for later developments in the nineteenth century.

It was the British scientist John Tyndall who demonstrated the absorption of infrared radiation from different gases in 1861.  His work found that nearly all of the greenhouse effect was due to just a few trace gases like water vapor and carbon dioxide (CO2).  This was a startling discovery, because it had huge implications for Earth’s climate.

The Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius was the first to actually detail how a doubling of carbon dioxide would change the global temperature with the publication of his work in 1896.  His work eventually led to the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 1903.  He is recognized with beginning modern climate science.

The discovery of global warming is a fascinating story.  I highly recommend the book by Spencer Weart by the name The Discovery of Global Warming.  If you are interested in the scientific papers, it is available in the collection called the The Warming Papers edited by David Archer and Raymond Pierrehumbert.

Note that the foundation of climate science occurred over a century ago.  It is also noteworthy that the trace gases were recognized for their ability to influence Earth’s climate as far back as the nineteenth century.

Fast forward to today.  The burning of fossil fuels has fueled (pardon the pun) the world economic growth.  China and the U.S. are the two largest emitters of CO2.  In the latest accounting the global growth in emissions continues.

How do we know that the increases in CO2 come from burning fossil fuels?

Denial Amongst TV Weathercasters

I was surprised this past week by an article in Rolling Stone magazine.  The article covered the issue of the denial of human-caused climate change among the nation’s television weathercasters.  It is an issue that has puzzled me given the science and the consensus among climate scientists.  One has to question why so many TV weathercasters seem to know more than climate scientists.  The article highlights a rather vocal group of communicators and can be seen here.

Screen grab of the Rolling Stone website.  Image Credit: Rolling Stone

There is one statement that I disagree with in the article.  It states that “Yet the cause of much of the meteorological mayhem – global warming – was rarely mentioned on air.”  The author implies that Sandy was caused by global warming.  I do not believe that this is accurate.  Sandy and other “meteorological mayhem” was enhanced in it destructiveness by global warming and climate change as I have written previously.

We're Melting! Melting!

“You cursed brat! Look what you've done! I'm melting! melting! Oh, what a world! What a world! Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness? Oooooh, look out! I'm going! Oooooh! Ooooooh!”

                                                                                          From the Wizard of OZ

Dorothy watches the Wicked Witch of the West melt in the Wizard of Oz.  Image Credit: Everett Collection.

How many times have you seen this movie?  I won’t spoil the ending if you haven’t.  However, I couldn’t help remembering this line from the movie Wizard of Oz as I read a new report this week.

The report was published in the November 30 issue of the journal Science.  It was the work of 47 experts in glaciology from 26 institutions worldwide and the best estimate we have of the amount of ice being lost from Greenland and Antarctica.  The team analyzed different sets of data covering the period from 1992 to 2011 and included satellite measurements from NASA.

Sandy: A Story of Survival

There have been a number of stories in the media of surviving Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy.  Tragically more than 200 people have lost their lives from the Caribbean to the Northeast.  Sandy was a hurricane as it moved through the Caribbean toward Cuba.  A number of lives were lost in Haiti due to the excessive rains.  The country was still trying to recover from the devastating earthquake in January, 2010.  Sandy has been a setback for the nation.

We have seen the images and heard the stories of Sandy from those affected in the Northeast.  There have been two stories that have jumped out at me in the past week.  The first was published here in the New York Times.  Stories like this remind me of the same stories told by hurricane survivors along the Southeast & Gulf coasts.  Why would anyone stay after seeing the devastation brought by Sandy?

Oblique aerial photographs of Mantoloking, NJ. View looking west along the New Jersey shore. Storm waves and surge cut across the barrier island at Mantoloking, NJ, eroding a wide beach, destroying houses and roads, and depositing sand onto the island and into the back-bay. Construction crews with heavy machinery are seen clearing sand from roads and pushing sand seaward to build a wider beach and protective berm just days after the storm. The yellow arrow in each image points to the same feature.  Image Credit: USGS.

Then there is this story of survival by Steve Hartmann of CBS.  His is a story of a son who decided to stay to protect the house.  I encourage everyone to see this.  It is one of the best examples of why you should never stay to protect property.  Fortunately no one was killed in this example.

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There are many lessons to be learned from Sandy.  CBS This Morning briefly mentioned a few thoughts as they interviewed a reporter from Time magazine.

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It will take time to recover from Sandy.  However, this is the time to think about the next storm.  Many will get money from FEMA or some other source to rebuild.  But why build in a vulnerable spot when the next storm will simply inflict the same result?

Andy Revkin of Dot Earth wrote an article explaining how so much was at risk in Sandy.  Simply rebuilding as before is a waste of money in my view.  Keep in mind that much of this is funded by taxpayers.  I do not mind helping victims with their loss, but to simply put the money back in harm’s way is a waste.

Local and state governments are reluctant to restrict rebuilding in vulnerable areas, because of the loss of revenue.  To declare land off limit to rebuilding is to reduce the revenue base.  Yet the cost to taxpayers is increasing.  Many of the same issues are happening in South Carolina and the result will likely be the same as in Sandy.

Furthermore, we need to rethink the infrastructure.  Areas need to be fortified and the electrical grid upgraded to weather future storms.  Of course the entire national grid needs to be upgraded to the 21^st century.  The frequency and severity of storms is increasing.  If we are to adapt to a changing climate, then this must be done.

Last night Nova aired a special program on PBS called Inside the Megastorm.  It is a look at the forecasts for Sandy, surviving the storm, and a look at the future.  If you missed the program, here it is:

Watch Inside the Megastorm on PBS. See more from NOVA.

The forecast for Sandy was excellent.  I first wrote about the potential eight days before landfall here.  There was plenty of warning that the storm was coming and that it would be bad.  Yet, there could have been better communication and preparation for the storm.

Still Sandy was an unusual hurricane.  I will address this in a latter post.

The Public Supports Action

The Yale Project on Climate Change Communication and the Center for Climate Change Communication at George Mason University released their survey of the public (as of September 2012) in a bi-annual report.  A staggering 92% of Americans say the President and Congress should make developing sources of clean energy a priority.  The full report can be seen here.

The cover for the new report.

The Rise Of Extreme Weather

Extreme weather has always been with us, but the trend over the past few decades has been for it to increase in number.  The Climate Extremes Index (CEI) was developed by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and goes back to 1910.  It looks at the number of events that occur.  The graph below compares the period of January through October so that data from this year can be included.

The CEI for the period of January - October 1910 - 2012.  Image Credit: NOAA/NCDC.

The CEI with the experimental tropical cyclone indicator included.  Image Credit: NOAA/NCDC.

A new report recently released (before Hurricane Sandy) by Munich Re, the world’s largest reinsurance company, re-enforces this observation.  The report is about the increase in extreme weather over North America.  The report states: