2013 Hurricane Season: Very Active?

It has been a little over a month since the last of the 2013 hurricane season forecasts were made.  All of the forecasts call for an active season with the possibility of a very active season.  The third named storm of the season (Chantal) formed late on July 6, which is just over a month earlier than when the average “C” storm forms.  Is this a sign of a very active season?  Given conditions in the tropics I would say, yes.

Tropical Storm Chantal moves into the eastern Caribbean Sea.  Click on image for a larger view.  Credit: NOAA.

Two storms have already formed in the deep tropics (Barry, Chantal) and one is a Cape Verde storm which usually doesn’t get going until mid-August.  As Jeff Masters points out on his blog:

"Most years do not have named storm formations in June and July in the tropical Atlantic (south of 23.5°N); however, if tropical formations do occur, it indicates that a very active hurricane season is likely. For example, the seven years with the most named storm days in the deep tropics in June and July (since 1949) are 1966, 1969, 1995, 1996, 1998, 2005, and 2008. All seven of these seasons were very active. When storms form in the deep tropics in the early part of the hurricane season, it indicates that conditions are already very favorable for TC development. In general, the start of the hurricane season is restricted by thermodynamics (warm SSTs, unstable lapse rates), and therefore deep tropical activity early in the hurricane season implies that the thermodynamics are already quite favorable for tropical cyclone (TC) development."

This quote is attributed to Colorado State University researchers Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray.

Sandy: A Story of Survival

There have been a number of stories in the media of surviving Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy.  Tragically more than 200 people have lost their lives from the Caribbean to the Northeast.  Sandy was a hurricane as it moved through the Caribbean toward Cuba.  A number of lives were lost in Haiti due to the excessive rains.  The country was still trying to recover from the devastating earthquake in January, 2010.  Sandy has been a setback for the nation.

We have seen the images and heard the stories of Sandy from those affected in the Northeast.  There have been two stories that have jumped out at me in the past week.  The first was published here in the New York Times.  Stories like this remind me of the same stories told by hurricane survivors along the Southeast & Gulf coasts.  Why would anyone stay after seeing the devastation brought by Sandy?

Oblique aerial photographs of Mantoloking, NJ. View looking west along the New Jersey shore. Storm waves and surge cut across the barrier island at Mantoloking, NJ, eroding a wide beach, destroying houses and roads, and depositing sand onto the island and into the back-bay. Construction crews with heavy machinery are seen clearing sand from roads and pushing sand seaward to build a wider beach and protective berm just days after the storm. The yellow arrow in each image points to the same feature.  Image Credit: USGS.

Then there is this story of survival by Steve Hartmann of CBS.  His is a story of a son who decided to stay to protect the house.  I encourage everyone to see this.  It is one of the best examples of why you should never stay to protect property.  Fortunately no one was killed in this example.

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There are many lessons to be learned from Sandy.  CBS This Morning briefly mentioned a few thoughts as they interviewed a reporter from Time magazine.

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It will take time to recover from Sandy.  However, this is the time to think about the next storm.  Many will get money from FEMA or some other source to rebuild.  But why build in a vulnerable spot when the next storm will simply inflict the same result?

Andy Revkin of Dot Earth wrote an article explaining how so much was at risk in Sandy.  Simply rebuilding as before is a waste of money in my view.  Keep in mind that much of this is funded by taxpayers.  I do not mind helping victims with their loss, but to simply put the money back in harm’s way is a waste.

Local and state governments are reluctant to restrict rebuilding in vulnerable areas, because of the loss of revenue.  To declare land off limit to rebuilding is to reduce the revenue base.  Yet the cost to taxpayers is increasing.  Many of the same issues are happening in South Carolina and the result will likely be the same as in Sandy.

Furthermore, we need to rethink the infrastructure.  Areas need to be fortified and the electrical grid upgraded to weather future storms.  Of course the entire national grid needs to be upgraded to the 21^st century.  The frequency and severity of storms is increasing.  If we are to adapt to a changing climate, then this must be done.

Last night Nova aired a special program on PBS called Inside the Megastorm.  It is a look at the forecasts for Sandy, surviving the storm, and a look at the future.  If you missed the program, here it is:

Watch Inside the Megastorm on PBS. See more from NOVA.

The forecast for Sandy was excellent.  I first wrote about the potential eight days before landfall here.  There was plenty of warning that the storm was coming and that it would be bad.  Yet, there could have been better communication and preparation for the storm.

Still Sandy was an unusual hurricane.  I will address this in a latter post.

The Rise Of Extreme Weather

Extreme weather has always been with us, but the trend over the past few decades has been for it to increase in number.  The Climate Extremes Index (CEI) was developed by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and goes back to 1910.  It looks at the number of events that occur.  The graph below compares the period of January through October so that data from this year can be included.

The CEI for the period of January - October 1910 - 2012.  Image Credit: NOAA/NCDC.

The CEI with the experimental tropical cyclone indicator included.  Image Credit: NOAA/NCDC.

A new report recently released (before Hurricane Sandy) by Munich Re, the world’s largest reinsurance company, re-enforces this observation.  The report is about the increase in extreme weather over North America.  The report states:

Six Days Of Sandy

Much has been or will be written about Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy.  The impacts are still being assessed and it may be weeks before we have the full picture.  It was an historic and unprecedented storm.  NASA has put together a wonderful video of Sandy from its development as a tropical depression to its transformation to a superstorm and finally a weaker system.  The time period covered here is from October 23 to 31.

However, an even better video covering the period October 25 to 31 was produced by NOAA NESDIS.  These rapid scan images were produced into a time-lapse movie as an experiment using the GOES-14 image.  The images are using visible light with a one kilometer resolution.

Movie credit: NOAA/CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Sandy is too large a storm to be viewed entirely at this resolution.  The view is centered on the central core and extends out a few hundred miles.  It begins in the central Bahamas as a hurricane and transforms north of the Bahamas as a hybrid storm.  Finally, Sandy makes a transition to extratropical just before making landfall on October 29^th.

This is a fascinating view of the storm.  I hope you will appreciate the power being generated by Sandy.  You can see the tops of thunderstorms bubbling up through the cirrus overcast.  Sandy generated a tropical storm force wind field that was up to 1000 miles across at times.  The central pressure was so low that if it had been a pure hurricane it would have been a category 4 storm.  However, the transition to a hybrid spread the winds over a much larger area preventing Sandy from concentrating the winds near the center.

Enjoy!

Sandy Update: Monday

Update: 10 p.m. EDT

Sandy made landfall about 5 miles southwest of Atlantic City, New Jersey around 8 p.m. EDT.  It came ashore as an extratropical cyclone as Sandy made a quick transition during the late afternoon.  The storm still had sustained winds up to 80 mph and was moving west-northwest at 21 mph.  Sandy slowed as it moved inland and may slow some more over the next few hours.

The windfield around Sandy as of 9 p.m. EDT, October 29, 2012.  Click on the image for a larger view.  Image Credit: NOAA.

Notice the area colored in yellow.  These are winds in the range of 45 to 60 mph.  This is a very large area of high winds and it is pushing water into New York harbor due to the southeast winds.  It produced a record flood for lower Manhattan.

Sandy continues to move inland and was near Wilmington, Delaware as of 10 p.m. EDT.  Inland winds of 40 to 50 mph were common.  This heaviest rains were now south and west of the center.

The radar from Dover AFB as of 10 p.m. EDT, October 29, 2012.  Sandy was centered southwest of Wilmington, Delaware.  Image Credit: WLTX-TV.

Heavy snows are now falling in West Virginia and western Virginia.  The snow extends south into the mountains of North Carolina, but amounts have been generally light so far.  More snow is expected overnight and through the day on Tuesday.

Update: 6 p.m. EDT

Sandy is now extratropical.  However, that does not alter the overall pattern of the storm.  It has been making rapid transition during the past few hours.  The 5 p.m. analysis of the wind field is below with the radar composite from 5:48 p.m.  The storm is approaching Cape May, New Jersey and should make landfall in about an hour.

The wind field over the radar.  Click on the image for a larger view.  The storm is extratropical.  Image Credit: NOAA.

 

Update: 2 p.m. EDT

Hurricane Sandy is accelerating and turning to the west-northwest.  The storm has been moving northwest over the past three hours, but it is clearly turning.  Forward motion is now 28 mph and central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 in.).  Maximum sustained winds still at 90 mph, but it appears that an area of strongest winds are developing north of the center.

Windfall analysis as of 1 p.m. EDT October 29, 2012.  Image Credit: NOAA.

Radar image of Sandy as of 2 p.m. EDT October 29, 2012.  Image Credit: WLTX-TV.

The faster forward motion means that the center will cross the coast earlier than forecast.  In addition, it could move faster as it is affected by a strongly negatively tilted trough shown in this mornings upper-air analysis.  The jet stream may cause a further deepening of the pressure.

Analysis of the 250 mb level showing strong winds along the East Coast.  Image Credit: NCAR/RAP.

The Dance Begins

The upper-level trough that has been moving through the central part of the U.S. is beginning to affect Hurricane Sandy.  It is moving east and energy will be moving into the base of the trough that will cause to tilt negatively.  Initially this will push the hurricane to the northeast.  However, as the trough gets close and the upper-level winds back, Sandy will turn north and then westward moving inland in the Northeast.

The 500 mb analysis for Friday evening October 26, 2012.  Click on the image for a larger view.  Image Credit: WSI.

Wind shear has been increasing over the hurricane and it is beginning to resemble a hybrid system.  A warm core typical of the tropical cyclone is in place, but the center does not have a ring of thunderstorms surrounding it.  NASA imagery showed the thunderstorms displaced to the north Friday evening.

The Perfect Storm 2

In the previous post, which was written on Sunday, I described a scenario that would play out over the next 7 to 10 days.  The details often change significantly at those time frames.  However, the computer models have done a reasonably good job at the overall weather pattern.  The model which has performed the best in my opinion has been the European model at the medium-range.  Now most of the models are clustered toward a similar solution, although the American model (GFS) continues to show some strange results.

The overall pattern is a negatively tilted trough pushing into the eastern part of the country and picking up the northward moving hurricane.  As the two interact Sandy will transform from a tropical cyclone to a nor’easter.  The wind will greatly expand and the storm may become a monster worthy of a Halloween trick.  Sandy will weaken as a hurricane, but may strengthen as a nor’easter before moving into Northeast.

The 500mb forecast pattern by the ECMWF model.  The top chart is for Sunday evening while the bottom chart is for Tuesday morning.  Click on the image for a larger view.  Image Credit: WSI.

Isaac's Biggest Threat: Water

Update: 1:35 a.m. EDT August 29,

The eye seems to have stalled off the coast of Grande Isle, LA.  It seems to be doing a loop on radar and this will delay landfall.  Much of southeastern Louisiana will be pounded by high winds, heavy rains, and storm surge for much of Wednesday.

The radar view from Slidell, LA at 1:05 a.m. EDT, August 29, 2012.

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As Isaac makes landfall in southeastern Louisiana it is likely to be a category 1 hurricane.  This may not sound like much, but the winds are still a danger and shelter will be needed.  However, it is the water, both surge and rain, that are the biggest threat.  The storm is expected to slow down as it moves through southeastern Louisiana and could produce rain through Wednesday night.

The forecast for Isaac as of 11 a.m. EDT, August 28, 2012.  Click on the images for a larger view.  Image Credit: NOAA/NHC.

At 11 a.m., Tuesday, Isaac was still a tropical storm; however it was close to becoming a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph.  This is strong enough to take out trees and power lines with some minor structural damage to buildings.  The satellite picture below showed the storm getting better organized, but the bulk of the rain was east and south of the center.

Isaac Is Now In The Gulf

Key West is normally a festive place particularly leading up to Labor Day.  Tonight it is a different place.  Webcams show only a few cars on the road on only a few brave souls on the streets.  Any partying is being done indoors.  It has been a rainy and windy day in Key West with gusts frequently up to 40 mph.  Peak gust occurred at 1:22 p.m. with winds to 47 mph.

Image from a webcam in Key West, FL.  Image Credit: WebcamViews.com

Isaac took a turn to the west-northwest for much of the day taking it through the Florida Straits.  It passed south of Key West late this afternoon instead of going through the Keys.  At 8 p.m. EDT on Sunday, the storm was located about 60 miles southwest of Key West moving west-northwest at 15 mph.  Maximum sustained winds were about 65 mph making it a tropical storm.

Isaac Heads For The Gulf

Last night Isaac moved across Haiti dumping torrential rains on the poorest country in this hemisphere.  High winds and flooding rains pounded the country into the morning hours.  The center of Isaac moved across the southern mountains of Haiti, but then turned northward through the Windward Passage to reach the eastern tip of Cuba by midday.

Click on image to enlarge.  Image Credit: NOAA/NHC.

This is the latest plot of the path of Isaac with the associated wind field.  Notice how erratic the path has been since moving into the Caribbean.  This is due to the complex weather pattern over the region playing a tug-of-war with the storm and it is still happening.

Isaac Is A Difficult Call

Tropical Storm Isaac moved into the eastern Caribbean Tuesday afternoon and was moving westward during the evening.  The storm was getting better organized late in the evening, but the winds were not much different from earlier in the day.  It is only a matter of time before the winds respond to the drop in pressure.

Tropical Storm Isaac at 0215z August 23, 2012.  This is an enhanced infrared picture of the storm.  The dark areas represent the colder cloud tops meaning that they are higher in the atmosphere.  Image Credit: NESDIS.

There has been considerable concern about the future of this storm due to the impact it could have on Florida and the Republican National Convention in Tampa next week.  Any evacuation would greatly alter the plans for the convention.  A general idea of where the storm is going can be gleaned from the models.  However, the devil is in the details.  It is far too uncertain at this time frame to pin down where the storm will strike land.

Ernesto Makes Landfall

Ernesto became the second hurricane this season yesterday afternoon.  Moving west-northwest the storm made landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula east of Chetumal, Mexico.  The official landfall was about 11 p.m. and maximum sustained winds were estimated at about 85 mph in squalls northeast of the center.  Minimum pressure was 980 mb (28.94 in.).

The top picture is an enhanced infrared satellite photo.  Image Credit: NESDIS.  The bottom picture is of Ernesto making landfall from the Doppler Radar in Belize City.  The hurricane is into the top portion of the screen.  Image Credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.  Click on either picture for a larger view.

Ernesto Approaches Barbados

Tropical Storm Ernesto formed in the tropical Atlantic east of the Windward Islands Wednesday afternoon.  Hurricane hunter aircraft found tropical storm force winds even though satellite pictures did not indicate as much organization.  Ernesto was nearing the island of Barbados just after midnight on Thursday morning.  The storm had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and was moving west at 22 mph.  The latest National Hurricane Center advisory can be found here.

Tropical Storm Ernesto approaching Barbados.  Click on the image for a larger view. Image Credit: NOAA/NHC.

Ernesto will pass through the Windward Islands this morning and head into the Caribbean Sea.  Conditions do not favor significant strengthening over the next few days and the computer models are tightly clustered around a westward path.

Computer model forecasts of the center of the storm.  Image Credit: NCAR.

The 2012 Hurricane Outlook

The Atlantic Basin has the most variable hurricane activity in the world and thus has become a challenge for meteorologists.  There seems to be a fascination with knowing what the season will be like, even if you can’t forecast where they may strike.

The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University has been making forecasts of the Atlantic hurricane seasons for the past 29 years.  It explains the need to forecast hurricane seasons this way:

“We issue these forecasts to satisfy the curiosity of the general public and to bring attention to the hurricane problem. There is a general interest in knowing what the odds are for an active or inactive season. One must remember that our forecasts are based on the premise that those global oceanic and atmospheric conditions which preceded comparatively active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar trends in future seasons. This is not always true for individual seasons. It is also important that the reader appreciate that these seasonal forecasts are based on statistical schemes which, owing to their intrinsically probabilistic nature, will fail in some years. Moreover, these forecasts do not specifically predict where within the Atlantic basin these storms will strike. The probability of landfall for any one location along the coast is very low and reflects the fact that, in any one season, most U.S. coastal areas will not feel the effects of a hurricane no matter how active the individual season is.”

Image Credit: SCMED Operations Center.

Every year South Carolina gears up for the expectation of hurricanes.  The state has a state-of-the-art facility to monitor hurricanes and emergency events.  Plans are reviewed and renewed.  Everyone is encouraged to become aware of their local situation and if need be know what routes are to be used for evacuations.  It is important to have hurricane kits and to update them each year.  This is also important for land-lovers since the effects of hurricanes can extend far inland.