Southeast Drought Improves

What a difference a month can make.  The drought situation was becoming serious at the end of January as I wrote here.  Yet, February saw an abundance of rainfall creating a substantial surplus for the month.

Monthly rainfall for February in Columbia, SC.  Image Credit: WLTX-TV.

Monthly observed rainfall for February, 2013, covering South Carolina as well as parts of Georgia and North Carolina.  Click on the image for a larger view.  Image Credit: NOAA/AHPS.

In South Carolina the heaviest rainfall occurred over the southern half of the state.  Some parts of the low country saw over ten inches of rain for the month.  The least rainfall occurred over the north central section where rainfall was in the three to four inch range.  However, this area saw more rain in January so that the two-month total is substantial.

A series of storm systems moved through the Southeast pumping moisture from the Gulf of Mexico northward.  The heaviest rainfall occurred across southern Alabama, southern Georgia, and parts of northern Florida.  The drought was center in central Georgia which had experienced extreme to exceptional drought conditions for over a year and a half.

A Change In The March 2013 Outlook

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues outlooks for the next month in the middle of the current month.  They will often issue an updated outlook near the last day of the current month.  Usually these projections do not vary much, but this month saw a substantial revision.

Computer models designed to forecast daily weather are run out to 15 days, four times each day.  Most are familiar with the 7-day forecast.  The CPC also issues 8-14 day outlooks for the second week of the forecast in additions to the monthly and seasonal outlooks that they make each month.

Beginning with the 8-14 day temperature outlook on February 21 and the one issued on February 28, it seems that the first half of March would be colder than normal for South Carolina as seen in the outlooks below.

The 8-14 day temperature outlooks.  The first one made February 21 and the second one (right) made February 28.  Click on the image for a larger view.  Image Credit: NOAA/CPC.

The reason for this projection is that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has been in a negative phase with the forecast for it to become strongly negative next week.  This usually produces a cold outbreak for parts of the U.S.  Last year the AO was strongly positive and the U.S. saw the warmest March on record.

A Record March for Columbia

If you thought it was warm in March, you were right.  Much of the U.S. east of the Rockies saw record or near record warmth for the first month of spring.  This follows the 4^th warmest winter for the U.S. as a whole.  More information will be released from the National Climatic Data Center next week.

However, we do have the information for Columbia.  It was a record March for the city and not by just a small amount.  The average temperature for the month was 65.4 degrees beating the previous record of 64.7 set in 1945.  This was almost 10 degrees (9.8) above normal for the month.

Top 5 Warmest

Mean Temperature                       Year                         Temperature

2012	65.4
1945	64.7
1921	63.9
1907	62.5
1974	61.7